Wednesday, May 07, 2008

What Does It Mean?


What Does It Mean?

Hillary wins Indiana by less than 1 percent.
Barack wins North Carolina.

What Does It Mean?
It means Obama picks up 13 more pledged delegates, erasing Clinton's Pennsylvania win by the way, and increases his delegate lead to at least 166.
It means Obama still has at least a 700,000 vote lead in the popular vote.
It means there are only a few contests left with only 217 pledged delegates up for grabs.
It means Clinton would have to win 77% of the remaining delegates.
It means that Hillary had to loan herself another 6 million dollars (for a total of 11) to stay in this long.
It means that Obama built up a big enough lead that even if Michigan and Florida are counted (and they should be) Obama is still in the lead at the end of this process.
It means Obama can’t get enough pledged delegates to put this thing away either.
It means that Hillary still has every right to stay in the game until the end.
But it also means that the Clinton Camp can only win by dropping a bomb on Obama (some have been hinting at some “dark secret” yet to be revealed) or by getting super delegates (and even pledged delegates) to switch their votes at the convention.
It means that unless Hillary gets really, really mean, Obama has wrapped this nomination up.
It means that Hillary Clinton is probably playing for concessions and a chance to pay herself back while the campaign fund raising machine is still in full operation.
It means we will be playing this game up till the convention this summer.

What Does It Mean?
Heck if I know what it means.
Political math seems to be different from the math I learned in school.
Corporate Media plays by its own unpublished rules and shines its spot light on the strangest aspects of this situation.
And unfortunately it seems to be coming down to predicting the voting pattern of the key demographic in this contest: Middle-aged, under-educated, working-class, white voters.
The question seems to be, since Obama can get the votes of most other demographic groups (young people, college educated people, people of color), will the trailer parks of America vote for a black man?
And since I am not in that demographic, I can’t tell you what it all means or how it will turn out.
But I can predict that the Corporate Media will be aiming its rhetoric at that demographic.

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